Middle East Live

Live updates on today’s events in the Middle East

Main Middle East News - 8 August 2025

Lebanon 🇱🇧: The Lebanese government is attempting to advance Hezbollah’s disarmament based on an American plan to be implemented by the end of 2025. Four Shia ministers, including two affiliated with Hezbollah, left the government meeting to protest this decision. Hezbollah categorically refuses and denounces it as a “grave sin”, while Iran firmly supports the movement.

Israel/Palestine 🇮🇱🇵🇸: The Israeli security cabinet has approved Netanyahu’s plan to “defeat” Hamas and take control of Gaza. The Israeli army is preparing for a military occupation of Gaza City while distributing humanitarian aid to civilians outside combat zones. London urges Israel to “immediately reconsider” this plan.

Syria 🇸🇾: Ahmed Al-Charaa has been weakened by violence in the Sweida region, where clashes between Druze and government forces have left over 1,400 dead. A ceasefire was declared after Israeli intervention, which struck Damascus and forced Syrian forces to withdraw from the Druze city.

Yemen 🇾🇪: The Houthis have resumed deadly attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, sinking two vessels in July 2025 and killing several sailors. Human Rights Watch calls these attacks apparent war crimes. Israel retaliated with strikes on Hodeidah port.

Turkey 🇹🇷: President Erdogan claims Turkey has become a “key player in international diplomacy for peace”. Ankara is positioning itself as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Iran conflicts, multiplying diplomatic contacts with all parties.

Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦: The kingdom has risen in the 2025 Global Intellectual Property Index with a 17.5% increase in its score, ranking 40th worldwide. The United States announced a $600 billion Saudi investment commitment during Trump’s visit.

Iran 🇮🇷: Tehran is experiencing a difficult period after its 12-day war with Israel in June 2025, which severely damaged its nuclear facilities and ballistic capabilities. The country refuses any nuclear negotiations with the United States as long as Israeli attacks persist.

Press Review: Our Analysis

The day was dominated by attempts to disarm Hezbollah in Lebanon, crystallising regional tensions. This American initiative marks a decisive turning point in the geopolitical balance of the Middle East, particularly after the significant weakening of the Iranian “axis of resistance” following recent conflicts.

Analytical Focus: Hezbollah Disarmament – A Decisive Test for Lebanese Stability

The announcement of the US plan to disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025 is the day’s most strategic event. This initiative comes as the Shia movement, traditionally regarded as Iran’s most powerful proxy, emerges weakened from its war with Israel in 2024.

Context: The plan proposed by US envoy Tom Barrack is structured in four phases: a government decree within 15 days, the start of disarmament within 60 days, progressive Israeli withdrawal within 90 days, and the final dismantling of heavy weapons within 120 days. This roadmap builds on the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, which had already stipulated Hezbollah’s withdrawal from south of the Litani River.

Actors and interests: The Lebanese government, under American pressure and facing Israeli threats of increased military operations, is attempting to regain control of national sovereignty. However, the withdrawal of Shia ministers from the government meeting illustrates the communal rift. Iran, through the deputy coordinator of the Al-Qods force, asserts that this disarmament “will not happen”, exposing the limits of Tehran’s influence after its recent setbacks.

Risks and consequences: The main danger lies in increased fragmentation of Lebanon along sectarian lines, potentially leading to institutional paralysis. Hezbollah’s opposition could spark internal unrest, or even armed confrontation with the Lebanese army. Conversely, success for this plan would mean the definitive weakening of Iranian influence in the Levant.

We remain particularly alert to short-term consequences. The main risk is an escalation of intercommunal tensions in Lebanon, which could undermine the country’s fragile stability and revive the latent dynamics of civil war that have existed for decades.